We have attempted to make UEP intuitive. Hovering the mouse pointer above entry titles, radio buttons, entry fields, and other areas for brief descriptions. Click the Symbols link for a quick reference to key variables and parameters.
"Decision Analysis Overview"
"Utility Function for Risk Policy"
Downloadable PDF Files
"Risk Policy as a Utility Function" (utility.pdf)
"Using Utility Elicitation Program" (uep.pdf)
Here are the symbols in UEP and brief definitions:
Symbol or Term
Probability of success. Or, probability of the better outcome.
Probability of success at BreakEven (where EMV = 0).
Fractional ownership of a large project or risky asset. The optimal Share gives you the highest CE.
Certain equivalent. This is the cash-in-hand value of a risk.
Net Present Value of the Success (or best or bad) outcome.
Net Present Value of the Failure (or good or worst) outcome.
Discounted Return on Investment. DROI = EMV / -NPVf. This is a popular ranking criterion if limited capital.
P(profit with 10)
The probability of NPV>0 with a portfolio of 10 identical, independent projects like this one.
Risk Tolerance Coefficient (RTC or r). This the scaling factor for risk policy. Helping you assess r is the purpose and outcome of EUP. Higher r means you are more risk-tolerant.
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The online UEP program is available at http//www.maxvalue.com/online.htm
That same page leads to a UEP User Guide plus other documents and videos.
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